4G will outpace 3G by 2030 in sub-Saharan Africa – GSMA

Sub-Saharan Africa's 4G adoption is forecast to reach 50% by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology. That's according to the Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 report published by the GSMA.

Although 5G adoption remains in its early stages, it is projected to reach 17% of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the data suggests.  This is actually a big growth target as in 2023 just 1.2% of all mobile connections in sub-Saharan Africa were 5G subscribers.

In 2023, 4G made up 31% of all mobile connections in sub-Saharan Africa and 3G accounted for around 54% of subscriptions. This is set to switch by 2030, the GSMA believes, with 4G growing to 50% and 3G falling to 31% of the total.

(Source: GSMA's Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 Report)

The GSMA said the region's mobile industry contributed US$140 billion to GDP in 2023, and this is projected to reach $170 billion by 2030 "if key connectivity barriers are addressed."

The GSMA believes mobile technology is essential in supporting development goals across key sectors like healthcare, education and finance, driving economic growth by expanding Internet access and digital services.  

Connectivity gaps persist

The report found that mobile Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa reached 27% by the end of 2023 and is forecast to grow to 37% by 2030.

Related:Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least connected region globally

However, a significant coverage gap remains, with 13% of the population still unreached.

There is also a substantial usage gap of 60% in the region. This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face barriers such as device affordability, digital skills deficits and concerns around online security.

Globally, 3.1 billion people – 39% of the global population – are impacted by the usage gap. Sub-Saharan Africa is the least connected region, with the largest usage gap worldwide.  

(Source: GSMA's Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 Report)

In addition to these connectivity challenges, the region faces high operating costs, inflationary pressures and energy price volatility, the GSMA said.

Despite these obstacles, emerging trends such as generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and satellite partnerships present innovative solutions to bridge gaps across sectors.

"Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa's mobile ecosystem," Angela Wamola, GSMA's head of sub-Saharan Africa, said in a statement about the report.

"To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact," she added.

Related:MWC Kigali 2024 postponed

The GSMA believes that smartphone penetration in the region will grow from 51% in 2023 to 81% by 2030 and the number of unique mobile subscribers in sub-Saharan Africa will grow from 527 million in 2023 to 751 million by 2030.

5G, AI and IoT forecasts

By 2030, 5G alone is expected to contribute $10 billion to the region's economy, accounting for 6% of the mobile sector's total economic impact.

However, the report emphasizes the need for progressive spectrum policies, particularly the release of midband spectrum, to support long-term growth and equitable digital access.

Additionally, 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, addressing demand for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas.  

The GSMA believes GenAI will contribute up to $1.5 trillion to Africa's economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI for customer engagement and network optimization.

"MTN and Vodacom, for instance, are deploying AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, although the region faces a shortage of skilled AI professionals," the report said.  

The expansion of 4G and 5G networks in the region will also drive significant growth in the Internet of Things (IoT) applications. The GSMA forecasts that licensed cellular IoT connections in sub-Saharan Africa will almost double between 2023 and 2030.

By 2030, the region will have more than 50 million licensed cellular IoT connections, with South Africa contributing more than 50% to the total.

Meanwhile, smart utility IoT connections will account for nearly 30% of IoT connections in the region by 2030.

GSMA advocates for industry reform

The report also advocates for a series of critical actions to ensure sustainable growth and digital inclusion: